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The University of Texas has developed a COVID-19 model that projects that by November 8th, the Lubbock area may exceed hospital capacity.

The report claims that Texas Trauma Service Area B, which includes Lubbock and 22 other counties in the South Plains, has a 64 percent chance of exceeding capacity in Intensive Care Units, and a 29 percent chance of exceeding hospital capacity overall.

KAMC News reports that as of Wednesday, October 21st, 16.8 percent of overall hospital capacity in Trauma Service Area B was taken up by COVID-19 patients.

This also marks the 3rd day in a row the region has reported a COVID-19 hospitalization rate above 15 percent. If this rate stays above 15 percent for four more days, Governor Greg Abbott may begin issuing rollbacks for business reopenings in the area.

The UT report says the area is estimated to reach 400 hospitalizations and 110 ICU patients by November 8th. Also as of Wednesday, the area had 258 COVID-19 hospitalizations and 70 patients in ICU.

The number of COVID-19 patients that were being hospitalized and admitted to the ICU had reached its peak in late July, but the report projects that the numbers will increase beyond what they were then in November.

On top of all this, the report says there is a 71 percent chance that the COVID-19 pandemic is currently in a growth phase for Trauma Service Area B.